US forces removed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro from Caracas in a pre-dawn raid on Jan. 3, then flew him to a U.S. warship and onward to New York on narcotics charges. Hours later, President Donald Trump said Washington would keep direct control of the South American state to stop “somebody else” filling the vacuum and to ensure crude keeps moving to world markets.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, yet years of sanctions and mismanagement have left production near one million barrels a day. China takes the lion’s share of those barrels under long-standing oil-for-loan deals that remain in force despite the overnight strikes.
“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago, outlining plans for an interim civilian-military council and promises that U.S. majors will fix “the badly broken infrastructure” of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Washington asserts interim control
Defence officials said the nine-hour operation, dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve, destroyed several air-defence sites but avoided refineries and pumping stations. PDVSA insiders later told Reuters that production units and export jetties were still running at normal rates, though ports outside the oil belt, including La Guaira, suffered blast damage.
November exports had averaged roughly 950,000 barrels a day, half of which moved on re-flagged tankers after a U.S. blockade in December cut official liftings. Trump added that American crews could enter fields “within weeks” once a temporary licence regime is issued, but he left sanctions unchanged.
Market analysts noted that any U.S. stewardship will still need Asian cash. Venezuela owes China an estimated US$50 billion (C$67 billion) and repays it mainly by shipping crude. Beijing bought about 69 per cent of all Venezuelan oil in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Traders said that share could climb if Washington keeps flows open while insisting on dollar-cleared sales that few buyers outside China can finance.
Beijing condemns, eyes crude supply
China’s foreign ministry denounced the raid within hours. “China is deeply shocked by and strongly condemns the U.S.’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state,” a ministry spokesperson said, urging Washington to respect the UN Charter. The statement did not mention oil, but officials in Beijing privately signalled that state trader CNPC is ready to keep lifting Orinoco heavy crudes under existing loan contracts, provided shipping insurance remains available.
Analysts in Ottawa said the arrangement could suit both capitals. The United States gains leverage over Caracas while avoiding a supply shock that might lift gasoline prices in an election year. China protects long-term repayment streams and preserves influence in Latin America even as U.S. advisers oversee day-to-day operations in Caracas. One short sentence underscores the point.
Geopolitical risks linger
Yet uncertainty hangs over every element of the plan. The United Nations Security Council will debate the legality of Maduro’s removal on Jan. 5, and regional blocs are split. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro condemned the incursion, while Brazil called for fresh elections supervised by the Organization of American States. Any sabotage of pumping stations or pipelines could also undermine Washington’s goal of a seamless handover. For now, crude keeps flowing, war premiums on Brent have edged up only marginally, and engineers at PDVSA’s aging upgraders continue to improvise spare-parts workarounds. That fragile stability may be tested as the interim council starts rewriting royalty terms and opening joint ventures to outside investors.