A fresh Ipsos survey showed that 64 percent of Canadians want Ottawa to stop foreign buyers from taking over resource companies lands just as two major transactions test the country’s openness to capital.
Anglo American’s US$53 billion (C$73 billion) merger with Vancouver-based Teck Resources and Fresnillo’s C$780 million (US$560 million) cash bid for Probe Gold both promise investment and jobs. These transactions are now colliding with a protectionist tide that spans every region and age group except the youngest voters.
Protectionist mood raises policy risk
Ipsos found that support for blocking overseas acquirers climbs to 71 percent among Canadians aged 55 and over, and still sits at 57 per cent in Ontario, the country’s financial hub.
“Basically, what this is saying is if globalization is being challenged, particularly by our southern neighbour, then we have to protect our key assets, and our key assets are natural resources,” Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker told Global News.
His warning matters because large foreign takeovers of resource producers are automatically reviewable under the Investment Canada Act, where the minister must judge “net benefit” and, since 2022, national security.
The last time Ottawa rejected a high-profile mining bid was in 2020. When Shandong Gold tried to buy TMAC Resources, politics then triumphed. Today’s poll gives cover to ministers who may wish to draw that line again.
Anglo-Teck plan faces uncertain gatekeepers
Anglo American and Teck say their combination will create a Vancouver-headquartered copper giant controlling six tier-one mines, and they have pledged C$4.5 billion of new domestic spending over five years. Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad said the deal will form “a global critical minerals champion with the focus, agility, capabilities and culture that have characterised both companies for so long.”
Even so, the merged entity dubbed “Anglo-Teck” would leave 62.4 percent of equity in London-based hands and preserve Anglo’s UK incorporation. That structure invites questions about whether executive offices in Vancouver amount to genuine Canadian control.
The plan of arrangement still needs two-thirds support from Teck shareholders, court approval and a green light from the federal cabinet. With the Ipsos numbers now in play, politicians may find it easier to attach stringent undertakings or delay closing beyond the targeted 12-to-18-month window.
Fresnillo’s Quebec push meets sovereignty test
Mexico-listed Fresnillo is offering C$3.65 per share for Probe Gold, a 39 percent premium that management has hailed as “an excellent outcome for our shareholders.” The prize is the 8-million-ounce Novador gold project near Val-d’Or, expected to produce more than 200,000 ounces annually for a decade once permitted. Quebec’s resource nationalism has generally centred on critical minerals, but gold still sits within the province’s new natural-resources strategy, and the Ipsos data show 61 per cent of Quebecers oppose foreign takeovers.
Unlike Anglo-Teck, the Fresnillo deal is small enough to avoid an automatic federal review on enterprise-value grounds; however, Ottawa can invoke a security review at any size, and the province retains leverage through environmental permitting and Hydro-Québec power contracts.
Political calculus outweighs premiums
Both bidders argue that scale and capital depth will accelerate mine development and advance Canada’s climate goals. Yet the poll signals that economic logic alone no longer guarantees social licence. Cabinet faces competing imperatives: attract the foreign capital needed for energy transition metals, or heed voters who see corporate control as a sovereignty issue.
The Investment Canada test is qualitative and ultimately discretionary. With a federal minority government reliant on support outside the resource-producing West, the path to approval for Anglo Teck and Fresnillo now looks considerably narrower than the headline valuations suggest.