The OPEC+ is expected to evaluate a potential increase in oil production when key members meet this Sunday, as global supply remains under pressure from ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, eight core members of the alliance will review output levels and could signal readiness to boost production further, particularly if critical export routes reopen.
At the center of the situation is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply typically flows. The route has been effectively shut due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, severely limiting shipments from major producers.
At their previous meeting in March, OPEC+ agreed to increase output modestly by 206,000 barrels per day for April, following a period of stable production earlier in the year.
Since then, however, the situation has escalated. The conflict has caused what sources describe as one of the most significant oil supply disruptions in recent history. Key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have been forced to reduce output due to export constraints.
As a result, crude prices have surged, approaching $120 per barrel — a four-year high — while additional disruptions, including drone attacks affecting Russian production, have further tightened supply.
Sources indicated that any decision to raise output at Sunday’s meeting may be largely symbolic in the short term. With exports constrained, additional production would have limited immediate impact but could position producers to respond quickly if shipping through Hormuz resumes.
“We need to react, at least on paper,” one source said, suggesting the move would signal flexibility rather than deliver immediate supply relief.
Not all OPEC+ members face the same constraints. Countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman are less directly affected by the closure of Hormuz, but their ability to significantly increase output remains limited.
Meanwhile, some producers are relying on alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia has ramped up shipments through its Red Sea facilities in Yanbu, nearing capacity, while the UAE continues to export crude from Fujairah, bypassing the strait entirely.
Despite the likelihood of discussions around increased production, a pause in output adjustments remains possible, given ongoing logistical challenges and uncertainty around the conflict.
The upcoming meeting will also coincide with a session of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees compliance and market conditions within the alliance.
With markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, OPEC+’s decision is expected to play a key role in shaping global oil prices in the coming weeks.