Oil markets ended Friday with modest gains following a volatile session sparked by conflicting reports about a potential U.S. military operation against Venezuela. Prices initially rose sharply after media outlets suggested Washington could launch air strikes within hours, but retreated once President Donald Trump publicly denied the reports on social media.
Brent crude settled at $65.07 a barrel, up seven cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $60.98, an increase of 41 cents. Both benchmarks remain on track for monthly losses of 2.6% and 2%, respectively, as global supply continues to climb.
Market reaction and geopolitical tension
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, described the session’s volatility as “classic geopolitical whiplash.” He noted that Trump had similarly denied plans for airstrikes on Iran earlier this year before ultimately authorizing them.
“There definitely was an impact on the market when the first report of a planned attack on Venezuela came out,” Flynn said. “If there is an attack over the weekend, prices will spike on Monday.”
The U.S. recently deployed a naval task force led by its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, to waters off Venezuela’s coast. While officials claim the mission targets drug trafficking, analysts say the scale of the deployment suggests wider strategic aims.
“It’s pretty clear something is afoot there,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC. “For oil traders, it’s a classic situation of buy now and ask questions later.”
Economic data and OPEC outlook
The U.S. dollar hovered near three-month highs, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, an official survey showed China’s manufacturing sector contracted for a seventh consecutive month in October, adding downward pressure to prices.
According to sources cited by Reuters, Saudi Arabia may cut its December crude prices for Asian buyers to multi-month lows, signaling a weaker demand outlook. OPEC+ is expected to discuss a modest production increase when it meets on Sunday, though most members lack the capacity to significantly boost output.
“Pretty much there is nothing they can add that is going to be meaningful beyond what the Saudis can do,” Kilduff said.
Saudi crude exports hit a six-month high of 6.4 million barrels per day in August, while U.S. production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day last week, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Trade and demand uncertainty
President Trump said Thursday that China had agreed to begin purchasing U.S. oil and gas, potentially including a major deal involving Alaskan energy. Analysts, however, expressed doubts about whether the announcement would translate into higher Chinese demand.
A Reuters survey forecasts Brent crude to average $67.99 per barrel in 2025, slightly above last month’s estimate, while WTI is projected to average $64.83.