Kenya led Africa’s private sector expansion in November, edging ahead of Nigeria as growth gathered pace across East Africa. The latest purchasing managers’ surveys showed Kenyan firms reporting stronger orders, faster output and firmer hiring, the broad mix that tends to lift project pipelines.
November’s reading marked a five-year high for Kenya, signalling momentum after a late‑year turn in business conditions. The headline index remained well above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Contractors and suppliers read that as a sign of more tenders moving from planning into delivery. It also hints at better cash flow and shorter lead times for materials.
Nigeria stayed in growth, but at a slightly softer pace than October. Activity continued to broaden across manufacturing, services, wholesale and retail, and agriculture. Firms reported steady gains in new work and a gradual easing of price pressures.
PMI signals demand-led upturn
Kenya’s reading captured a demand-led upturn as customers returned and price pressures cooled. Survey responses pointed to one of the sharpest lifts in activity since 2020, driven by stronger sales and marketing pushes.
“The uplift in business activity was one of the sharpest recorded,” Stanbic Bank said in comments accompanying the survey.
Firms also signalled improved hiring and more input purchases to rebuild inventories ahead of year end. That combination usually supports construction schedules, power connections, and last‑mile works for water and broadband. When input inflation cools, contractors can price bids with less contingency, which can speed award decisions.
Softer inflation also tends to help working capital. If purchase prices rise more slowly, suppliers can extend terms with less strain, which keeps job sites moving. Kenya’s survey pointed to more stable output charges, a sign that pass‑through pressures eased.
Demand strength, however, raises a different question, whether capacity can keep up without bottlenecks. If vendor competition remains healthy, delivery times should continue to shorten. That is good news for basic materials, from cement to cables. It is also helpful for finishing trades that often face delays late in the build.
Nigeria’s performance stayed positive in November, with the headline PMI registering 53.6, the 13th straight month of expansion, according to the latest survey update published in Lagos. That trend, built on rising new orders and more stable pricing, suggests continued scope for project mobilization in 2026.
The reading also underlines the importance of policy measures that ease logistics and energy costs. For contractors, a gentler inflation backdrop helps protect margins on fixed scopes. For lenders, steady activity can support draw schedules and covenant compliance on existing deals. These are incremental but important signals for roads, housing enabling works, and distribution networks. The momentum is broad based, yet still sensitive to power reliability and client payment cycles, both cited regularly by Nigerian firms.
Narrative tone from the survey remains constructive. “Nigeria’s headline PMI remained in the expansionary territory in November,” Stanbic IBTC said in its November PMI update.
The same report flagged a further softening in input cost inflation, which helps stabilise bid pricing. If that persists, procurement teams can lock in unit rates with more confidence. That is often the difference between a delayed award and a signed contract. It can also reduce the need for on‑the‑fly value engineering once work begins.
Comparing the two markets, Kenya’s five‑year high stands out for speed, while Nigeria’s run of consecutive expansions stands out for duration. For a continent that needs steady delivery of energy, transport and water assets, both patterns are useful.