Canada will head into 2026 with hydropower still doing the heavy lifting. National output is on track to hit roughly 390 terawatt-hours next year, a figure the Statista market outlook says will edge higher at 0.6 per cent a year through 2029. z
Ottawa’s Clean Electricity Strategy frames that growth as central to meeting net-zero goals, but the real action sits with provinces updating aging dams and finishing new ones.
B.C. and Ontario lead capital push
British Columbia will flip the switch on the sixth and final generator at the 1,100-megawatt Site C dam before the end of 2025. BC Hydro says the project will add about eight per cent to the provincial supply and power half-a-million homes. “Commissioning the fifth generating unit at Site C is a significant step towards securing more clean and affordable electricity,” Minister Adrian Dix said in July 2025 BC Hydro news release.
Ontario is choosing refurbishment over greenfield builds. Ontario Power Generation will start a 15-year, C$1-billion overhaul of up to 25 units at the Sir Adam Beck I and II stations in 2025, safeguarding roughly 1,700 megawatts and adding 50 megawatts of new capacity.
“Upgrading and optimising OPG’s renewable workhorses like the Sir Adam Beck complex is crucial to support electrification and a thriving economy,” OPG chief executive Ken Hartwick said in an April 2024 project brief.
The construction sector is ready. On-Site Magazine’s 2026 forecast notes civil contractors see “heavy power and hydroelectric” projects dominating the order book, a trend that will test labour supply but keep equipment yards busy.
Refits dominate Quebec and the Prairies
Quebec’s plan is to squeeze more life out of heritage assets while eyeing future new builds. Rio Tinto has committed US$1.2 billion (C$1.7 billion) to modernise its 1926-vintage Isle-Maligne station, replacing all eight turbine-alternator groups by 2032. Hydro-Québec’s $613-million Rapide-Blanc rebuild, due in 2026, will swap out six turbines that have been spinning since the 1930s. Smaller safety and deck works continue at Chelsea on the Gatineau River.
Farther west, Manitoba Hydro is tackling transmission, not generation. Its $7-billion High-Voltage Direct Current Reliability Project will replace converter stations on Bipoles I and II over 15 years, lines that carry more than 70 per cent of the province’s hydro output. The utility’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan hints at future wind additions but keeps new dam construction off the near-term table as it digests the Keeyask build and manages drought risk.
Across the country the federal strategy promises annual progress reports starting in 2025, yet provinces remain in the driver’s seat. British Columbia is finishing what it started a decade ago, Ontario is extending the life of century-old workhorses, Quebec is splitting the difference, and Manitoba is reinforcing the backbone that moves northern water power south. Together those decisions keep hydropower at the centre of Canada’s clean-electricity playbook as 2026 comes into view.