Canada’s drilling and service contractors expect a modest lift next year. Their outlook follows a new federal‑provincial deal meant to unlock energy investment. The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors released its annual view, pointing to a slight increase in wells and operating activity. The group says momentum will build slowly as policy shifts take shape.
“This is really pragmatic policy,” said Mark Scholz, who leads the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. He added that recent federal‑provincial moves should help competitiveness over time. The forecast points to steady rig activity and service hours, with only small percentage gains. Results will depend on prices, winter conditions, and field productivity. Firms plan cautiously.
Modest gains, policy under review
At the centre of recent announcements is a memorandum of understanding between Ottawa and Alberta. The agreement outlines a privately financed pipeline proposal of at least one million barrels per day to the West Coast, with Indigenous co‑ownership. It also signals a higher effective price for industrial carbon credits under Alberta’s TIER system, targeting a minimum $130 per tonne. The document notes possible changes to the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act to enable exports from a strategic deep‑water port. These are framework commitments, so timing and permits remain open questions.
Producers and contractors will watch how that pipeline path evolves. A clearer route and schedule would shape equipment plans, labour needs, and yard mobilization. In the near term, the drilling outlook remains flat to slightly higher. Activity is still driven by corporate spending discipline and winter access windows.
Market signals and capacity outlook
Natural gas has a different pull. As LNG Canada ramps up, analysts expect firmer demand for B.C. supply and connected basins. Gas‑weighted drilling could benefit first, then services tied to completions. Capital budgets will still reflect price volatility and cost inflation. Balance sheets matter.
Industry groups describe a mixed picture. “With LNG Canada ramping up, Canadian producers are positioned to benefit from sustained global pricing once near‑term pressures ease,” said Gurpreet Lail, who leads Enserva. That view suggests a gradual turn rather than a surge. It also points to uneven regional trends. Gas hubs may tighten sooner than oil plays.
Contractor capacity is another factor. Day rates, crew availability, and parts supply shape how quickly fleets respond. Operators prefer predictable schedules, so any policy clarity helps execution. The association’s forecast hints at stability first, then selective growth. It is a measured stance.
New project delivery will hinge on private capital and shared risk. The Ottawa‑Alberta pact calls for private financing, with opportunities for Indigenous co‑ownership. That model affects procurement, insurance, and timing of orders. Early works, from surveys to access roads, would signal real progress. Until then, rigs are booked around near‑term programs.
Carbon capture plans add another layer. The memorandum backs large‑scale CCUS to lower the barrel’s carbon intensity. That could support longer‑term investment cases and export access. Market access, policy certainty, and steady prices remain the three levers. For now, contractors see 2026 as a step forward, not a leap.
“This is really pragmatic policy,” said Mark Scholz. His view captures the tone of a cautious sector. The coming months will test whether policy intent turns into shovel‑ready timelines. Investors, workers, and communities will be watching closely.