The new “America First” agenda taking root in Washington is being closely watched by China, as infrastructure investment opportunities open up across Latin America. With the new administration firing thousands of international development workers, slashing aid, investment, and general spending, in addition to a series of controversial tariffs, the countries of Latin America are looking for new partners to develop their resources.
For nearly two decades, China has deepened ties with countries throughout the region through its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has already enlisted more than 20 Latin American and Caribbean nations. Unlike the often conditional U.S. aid packages of the past, China’s approach focuses on massive infrastructure development with fewer political strings attached – though as many
“One of the most remarkable gains in Chinese foreign policy in recent years is the increasing power and presence of the communist state in Latin America and the Caribbean, a region traditionally considered America’s backyard,” says Vincent Wang, dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at Adelphi University. “This is due to China’s growing diplomatic clout, the leftward inclination of several countries, and America’s neglect.”
The numbers tell a compelling story of China’s commitment to the region. Between 2005 and 2022, Beijing invested more than $10 billion in just six Caribbean countries—Jamaica, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, and the Bahamas—according to a House Foreign Affairs Committee report. These investments span sectors from tourism and transportation to agriculture and energy. Guyana, in particular, is about to become one of the largest oil producers per capita in the world.
Meanwhile, the current administration’s budget proposals have repeatedly sought to reduce U.S. foreign aid to the region, creating a vacuum that China has eagerly filled.
Experts, such as John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, have argued that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against China may inadvertently accelerate this trend by pushing Latin American nations further into Beijing’s orbit.
“Under the Trump administration, the United States is rapidly yielding its already declining hegemony in Latin America to China,” warns Deborah Norden, a professor of political science at Whittier College. “The threat of tariffs drives Latin American countries to expand economic integration with more eager partners, at the same time that the obliteration of U.S. foreign aid erases decades of cultivating loyalty in the region.”
As trade tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Latin American countries are increasingly looking to diversify their economic relationships, with China offering a stable and growing market for their exports alongside substantial infrastructure investment.
The consequences of this shift extend far beyond immediate economic impacts. As China cements its position through critical infrastructure ownership and development, it gains long-term leverage and influence that will be difficult to displace.
“In this context, China’s rising role, especially in the Caribbean, may put Florida at risk in that its neighbors can no longer be expected to ally with the United States in an international conflict, particularly one between the U.S. and China,” Norden adds.
While Chinese officials maintain there are “no geopolitical calculations” in their regional engagement, the strategic implications are difficult to ignore. By establishing deep economic ties throughout the Western Hemisphere, China is creating relationships that could reshape regional diplomacy for decades.
For Florida—with its significant Latino and Caribbean population and geographic proximity to the region—these developments carry particular significance. As neighboring nations become increasingly dependent on Chinese investment and trade, traditional U.S. influence diminishes.
Some security experts even suggest the current situation poses risks more significant than historical challenges to U.S. regional dominance. Wang contends that “the threat posed by China today is more serious than the threat posed by the Soviet Union during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.”
As the administration pursues policies that many regional leaders interpret as hostile or disengaged, Beijing’s patient, infrastructure-focused diplomacy continues to gain traction. Without a significant shift in U.S. approach, China appears positioned to become the dominant external influence in Latin America’s development landscape for the foreseeable future—a reality with profound implications for U.S. economic and security interests in its own hemisphere.