Barrick Mining is weighing a breakup that would park its Nevada gold powerhouse in a stand-alone North American vehicle while bundling risk-laden African and Asian pits into a sister firm. The board discussions come after five years in which gold set fresh nominal highs yet Barrick’s total return gained only 52 percent, barely one-third of peer Agnico Eagle’s haul.
Investors who rode through pandemic volatility and record bullion prices have little to show beyond a modest yield and periodic share buybacks. Analysts say the split aims to surface value now trapped under geopolitical risk discounts, but a carve-up also means years of legal filings, tax rulings and fresh boards before any re-rating lands.
Record prices, muted total returns
Gold averaged more than US$2,100 an ounce for much of 2025, and copper flirted with US$5 a pound, yet companies like Barrick and Anglo American still trailed the wider mining index. Barrick’s market weight sits at roughly nine times forecast cash flow, a level brokers describe as a “perennial discount.”
Anglo’s shares, dogged by diamond and platinum write-downs, trade near one-time book value despite the copper super-cycle narrative. Rising costs for cyanide, diesel and skilled labour have eroded windfalls, and both groups face higher sovereign levies in Mali, Tanzania and South Africa. The chorus of disappointment has grown louder as Canadian pension funds pivot to royalty vehicles that lock in commodity upside without operating risk.
Restructuring gambit faces execution risks
Barrick’s next chief executive must still resolve a US$1-billion dispute in Mali and replace ore lost at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex before investors will pay North American multiples.
“There has been a view that there is a lot of value in Nevada,” a long-time Barrick investor said, arguing the mine would rank among the world’s largest by market cap if listed on its own.
Yet carving Nevada out could leave the rump business with thin free cash flow and limited exploration upside, echoing past break-ups that failed to close valuation gaps. Management also faces covenant tests if a split triggers change-of-control clauses on US$5 billion of public bonds.
Anglo’s pivot yet to pay
Across the Atlantic, Anglo American is selling coal and nickel units and preparing a De Beers spin-off, moves meant to sharpen its copper and iron-ore focus. The disposals raise cash but slice earnings before the flagship projects in Chile and Peru ramp up.
“We are unlocking the inherent value of all of Anglo American,” CEO Duncan Wanblad said when announcing the US$500-million nickel deal in February.
His plan has yet to translate into richer dividends; the 2024 payout fell 46 percent even as copper prices touched 15-year highs. Shareholders forced to fund heavy capex at the Woodsmith fertiliser mine and Quellaveco expansion wonder when copper premiums will filter through to cash.
Outlook clouded by lingering doubts
Barrick’s breakup talk and Anglo’s divestment spree show managements reacting to investor frustration rather than shaping market cycles. Both aim to simplify stories for capital markets, yet neither has proven able to turn record mineral values into outsized, sustainable returns.
Unless operating costs ease, permitting accelerates and tax certainty improves, the promised unlock could again slip beyond the horizon. For now, the sector’s largest diversified names remain examples of how high commodity prices do not automatically guarantee high shareholder rewards.