Artificial intelligence workloads are pushing a once‑niche asset class to the centre of capital programmes. Allianz Commercial estimates that up to $7 trillion (C$9.5 trillion) will be spent on data centres by 2030, with the United States and China setting the pace for deployment as projects scale in size and complexity.
Electricity demand is rising in parallel, with the International Energy Agency projecting that data centre consumption could reach about 945 terawatt hours by 2030, roughly equal to Japan’s current use. That combination is reshaping delivery risk, siting strategy, and power procurement. Financing follows the megawatts.
Capex climbs, risk transfer evolves
Cost inflation is altering the risk profile. Allianz notes that individual campuses now occasionally exceed $20 billion (C$27 billion), stretching contractor capacity and insurance placements as scopes bundle power, cooling, and backbone connectivity into a single critical path. That pushes owners toward tighter interface management with dedicated builders’ risk and bespoke delay‑in‑start‑up cover.
“Construction projects as complex and extensive as data centers require significant time and resources,” said Darren Tasker of Allianz Commercial. Insurers, lenders, and sponsors are converging on more prescriptive commissioning regimes as fault, fire, and workmanship exposures rise.
Grid and siting shape delivery timelines
The power system is now the gating item. The IEA finds that data centre electricity demand will more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030, with AI‑optimised facilities the primary driver in markets where land, transmission, and cooling are aligned.
Operators are leaning on a mix of utility supply, corporate power purchase agreements, and on‑site generation to de‑risk energization dates. In the United States, the IEA expects natural gas to provide the largest increment of new supply this decade, with renewables close behind, while early nuclear options remain limited to pilots.
“AI is one of the biggest stories in the energy world today,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. Technology roadmaps promise efficiency gains, yet local grid bottlenecks will still dictate phasing.
Canada calibrates compute and power
Canada’s policy posture is sharpening as sponsors weigh location against reliable, low‑carbon electricity. Ottawa’s Canadian Sovereign AI Compute Strategy commits up to C$2 billion to catalyse domestic AI infrastructure, signalling a preference for sovereign capacity anchored in Canadian grids.
In Ontario, the system operator forecasts electricity demand will grow 75 percent by 2050, with data centres representing 13 percent of new demand and 4 percent of total load by 2035, according to the IESO’s latest outlook.
That trajectory places a premium on timely transmission projects, capacity procurements, and the ability to stage connections as substations and lines clear approvals. Sponsors will increasingly need bundled solutions that pair interconnection queues with contracted clean supply. Delivery will hinge on grid readiness and credible schedules.
Scale intensifies coordination across stakeholders
Global growth remains robust. Allianz frames the overall market at “several trillion US dollars” this decade, implying a durable construction and equipment cycle across power electronics, switchgear, and thermal systems as hyperscalers and colocations expand footprints in clusters.
At the project level, lenders will scrutinize energization certainty and resilience plans more than ever, especially where backup generation, water availability, and heat rejection intersect with municipal constraints. “The scale of a $20bn+ facility can involve tens of thousands of workers on site at peak times,” Allianz’s Chris Fancher noted. The playbook is standardizing, but each region’s grid reality still sets the schedule and the price.